Rain we need (but may not get)
The numerical models are at it again, predicting between 1/2 and 2 inches of rain over Minnesota. For last Tuesday's storm, the one that produced tornadoes in western MN, the models did reasonably well. Much of central Minnesota received 1-3 inches of rain, most of which merely ran off, but in any case helped at least a little bit. The recent cool conditions have probably kept some of that new moisture from escaping, which means that tonight/tomorrow's system will probably be producing more rain up there. The wet get wetter.
As of this writing, our drought is severe and expanding (click here for weekly updates):
Don't look for much change over the Twin Cities area any time soon. Any change will be nickel/dime-style, through the end of the month, and that's putting a fairly positive spin on things...we could easily make it through the rest of the month without another half-inch of rain. Let's hope not, but it certainly is possible.
Tonight and tomorrow, we have the chance for a nickel. A weak system, with accordingly poor instability, weak winds aloft, and no real fronts, is going to loll about the region. Despite the poor instability, this is actually a decent set-up for heavy rains, mostly because the weak winds will help storms sit over the same places for more time than is usual. The heavy-ish rains have already been hitting the Dakotas and now western Minnesota. More rain will fall there, and it will expand into central, northern, and southwestern Minnesota. Some of those areas will see flooding. But that's them. Those areas are not super-dry. They do not have problems with moisture convergence. We do.
The main axis of precipitation will move over eastern Minnesota later tonight and tomorrow morning. Most of the precipitation should be of the showery, thunderless variety (owing to the lack of strong instability), and thus, rainfall amounts over the Twin Cities should not be very high. But, whatever rain does fall may help moisten up the atmosphere for a bit of afternoon destabilization tomorrow (Tuesday). This could lead to redevelopment of thunderstorms fairly close to the Metro, and that could score score some areas a whole inch of badly-needed rain. Most areas though, should see less than that...maybe a quarter-inch, and that's only if round two gets going in the afternoon.
Here is 2-day precip forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, for the period ending 7PM Wednesday:
Since the forecast begins this evening, I think for starters, the heavy amounts need to come westward some. I think the .75-1.00" amounts over the entire TC area are very optimistic, but I hope they're correct. We shall see.
As of this writing, our drought is severe and expanding (click here for weekly updates):
Don't look for much change over the Twin Cities area any time soon. Any change will be nickel/dime-style, through the end of the month, and that's putting a fairly positive spin on things...we could easily make it through the rest of the month without another half-inch of rain. Let's hope not, but it certainly is possible.
Tonight and tomorrow, we have the chance for a nickel. A weak system, with accordingly poor instability, weak winds aloft, and no real fronts, is going to loll about the region. Despite the poor instability, this is actually a decent set-up for heavy rains, mostly because the weak winds will help storms sit over the same places for more time than is usual. The heavy-ish rains have already been hitting the Dakotas and now western Minnesota. More rain will fall there, and it will expand into central, northern, and southwestern Minnesota. Some of those areas will see flooding. But that's them. Those areas are not super-dry. They do not have problems with moisture convergence. We do.
The main axis of precipitation will move over eastern Minnesota later tonight and tomorrow morning. Most of the precipitation should be of the showery, thunderless variety (owing to the lack of strong instability), and thus, rainfall amounts over the Twin Cities should not be very high. But, whatever rain does fall may help moisten up the atmosphere for a bit of afternoon destabilization tomorrow (Tuesday). This could lead to redevelopment of thunderstorms fairly close to the Metro, and that could score score some areas a whole inch of badly-needed rain. Most areas though, should see less than that...maybe a quarter-inch, and that's only if round two gets going in the afternoon.
Here is 2-day precip forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, for the period ending 7PM Wednesday:
Since the forecast begins this evening, I think for starters, the heavy amounts need to come westward some. I think the .75-1.00" amounts over the entire TC area are very optimistic, but I hope they're correct. We shall see.
posted by Kenneth Blumenfeld at
4:50 AM
1 Comments
